RCR新 ：全球供应链中甲烷排放的演变

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134491930309X

本研究采用环境拓展的投入产出分析（EEIOA）方法，根据EDGAR排放数据库中最新的全球甲烷排放清单和来自WIOD数据库的全球MRIO表，对2000-2012年主要经济体全球供应链中甲烷排放进行了全面的描述。此外，研究从最终需求结构和源排放结构的角度阐述了隐含排放的演化特征。在追踪国际贸易中隐含的甲烷排放时，研究还区分了农业和能源相关甲烷排放的贡献。根据结果，从区域和全球的角度为主要经济体提出了一些甲烷减排政策建议。

1、追踪了2000-2012年全球供应链中的甲烷排放量。

2、中国/欧盟的基于消费的甲烷排放量在2000-2012年呈现出明显的增加/减少趋势。

3、全球通过国际贸易转移了越来越多的甲烷排放量。

4、该结果支持供应链相关的政策制定，以减缓甲烷排放。

摘要

减少甲烷排放（CH4）在应对全球气候变化方面发挥着重要作用。大多数先前的研究都集中在经济体的甲烷直接排放上，但却忽视了经济最终消费导致的全球供应链上游甲烷排放。本研究利用全球多区域投入产出分析，旨在探讨2000-2012年间主要经济体国际贸易和最终消费所隐含的甲烷排放的演变。结果显示，中国、欧盟、美国、印度和巴西是2000至2012年年基于消费的甲烷排放量最高的前五大经济体。特别是，中国基于消费的甲烷排放量呈现出可观察的增长趋势，而欧盟、美国和日本呈下降趋势。据估计，甲烷排放量的增长通过国际贸易在全球发生转移，主要从中国，俄罗斯和其他大型发展中经济体向主要发达经济体的消费者出口。俄罗斯-欧盟、中国-美国和中国-欧盟形成了主要的隐含排放流双边贸易对。进一步分析发现，基于消费的人均甲烷排放与其人均GDP密切相关。量化主要经济体的贸易和最终需求所隐含的甲烷排放，可以为了解全经济范围的排放驱动因素，从消费者的角度设计全球和区域甲烷减排计划提供重要依据。

图1 2000年和2012年主要经济体人均GDP与人均甲烷排放间关系

图2 2000-2012年主要经济体基于消费的甲烷排放结构

图3 主要经济体间国际贸易隐含甲烷排放（源分类）

标题：

Evolution of methane emissions in global supply chains during 2000-2012

Ying Wang(a), Bin Chen(b), ChengHe Guan(c,d), Bo Zhang(a,d)

单位：

a School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, PR China

b Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, PR China

c School of Arts and Sciences, New York University Shanghai, Shanghai 200122, PR China

d Harvard China Project, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, MA 02138, United States

英 摘要：

Reduction of methane emissions (CH4) plays an important role in addressing global climate change. Most previous studies have focused on the direct CH4emissions of economies, but overlooked the upstream CH4emissions along global supply chains induced by the final consumption of economies. Using a global multi-regionalinput-output analysis, this study aims to explore the evolution of CH4 emissions embodied in international tradeand final consumption in major economies during 2000–2012. The results show that China, the EU, USA, Indiaand Brazil were the top five economies with high volumes of consumption-based CH4emissions from 2000 to2012. In particular, China’s consumption-based CH4emissions showed an observable growth trend, while theEU, the USA and Japan showed a downward trend. It’s estimated that growing amounts of CH4emissions (i.e.,the volume increase from 77.1 Mt in 2000 to 95.9 Mt in 2012) were transferred globally via international trade,primarily as exports from China, Russia and other large developing economies to consumers in major developedeconomies. Russia–EU, China–USA and China–EU formed the main bilateral trading pairs of embodied emissionflows. Further analysis found that per capita consumption-based CH4emissions was closely related to their percapita GDP. Quantifying the CH4emissions embodied in trade and final demand of major economies can provideimportant basis for understanding economy-wide emission drivers to design global and regional CH4reductionscheme from a consumer perspective.

张浩然，北京大学城市与环境学院博士研究生，研究方向：资源环境政策和管理。